EFFECTS ON URBAN HEAT ON HEALTH

 Health is an important motivator in discussions of climate change. Exposure to high temperatures increase risks for many health conditions, some of them being: 

• Heat cramps
• Heat exhaustion 
• Heat stroke 
• Cardiovascular disease
• Kidney disease
• Respiratory disease
• Poor reproductive outcomes
• Behavioral and mental health conditions

On average, heat is associated with more fatalities than other weather-related events. Death and illness directly attributable to heat are only a portion of total health impacts.

Populations particularly vulnerable to heat related illness and death include: 

• Elderly 
• Those with chronic conditions 
• Pregnant women
• Low income population

Here are some views from our Instagram family members about the impact of temperature rise on health: 

@sabri_farouq:

"yes..like stroke"

@sumaiyaharunany :

"Heat strokes, heat exhaustion (profuse sweating) " 

@_nussy_ :

"It worsens air quality which can lead to asthma attacks & other respiratory health effects"

@zainab_akadir :

"Dehydration and heat stroke"

@legacy.consulting :

"In both extreme hot & cold it becomes hard to breath"

@_real_rizwana :

"Animals die easily, especially those who are not made for extreme hot/cold "

 

TEMPERATURE RISE

 Introduction

Over the last 50 years, human activities – particularly the burning of fossil fuels – have released sufficient quantities of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases to trap additional heat in the lower atmosphere and affect the global climate.

In the last 130 years, the world has warmed by approximately 0.85oC. Each of the last 3 decades has been successively warmer than any preceding decade since 1850

 The planet is warming, from North Pole to South Pole.  And the impacts of rising temperatures aren’t waiting for some far-flung future–the effects of global warming are appearing right now. The heat is melting glaciers and sea ice, shifting precipitation patterns, and setting animals on the move. Sea levels are rising, glaciers are melting and precipitation patterns are changing. Extreme weather events are becoming more intense and frequent.

The Past & The Future

The 10 warmest years on record have all occurred since 2005, and 7 of the 10 have occurred just since 2014. Looking back to 1988, a pattern emerges: except for 2011, as each new year is added to the historical record, it becomes one of the top 10 warmest on record at that time, but it is ultimately replaced as the “top ten” window shifts forward in time.

By 2020, models project that global surface temperature will be more than 0.5°C (0.9°F) warmer than the 1986-2005 average, regardless of which carbon dioxide emissions pathway the world follows. This similarity in temperatures regardless of total emissions is a short-term phenomenon: it reflects the tremendous inertia of Earth's vast oceans. The high heat capacity of water means that ocean temperature doesn't react instantly to the increased heat being trapped by greenhouse gases. By 2030, however, the heating imbalance caused by greenhouse gases begins to overcome the oceans' thermal inertia, and projected temperature pathways begin to diverge, with unchecked carbon dioxide emissions likely leading to several additional degrees of warming by the end of the century.

" 2019 among the three warmest years on record" 

Many characteristics of climate change directly depend on the level of global warming, but what people experience is often very different to the global average. For example, warming over land is larger than the global average, and it is more than twice as high in the Arctic.

But it is not just about temperature. Climate change is bringing multiple different changes in different regions – which will all increase with further warming. These include changes to wetness and dryness, to winds, snow and ice, coastal areas and oceans. For example:

• Climate change is intensifying the water cycle. This brings more intense rainfall and associated flooding, as well as more intense drought in many regions.
• Climate change is affecting rainfall patterns. In high latitudes, precipitation is likely to increase, while it is projected to decrease over large parts of the subtropics. Changes to monsoon precipitation are expected, which will vary by region.
• Coastal areas will see continued sea level rise throughout the 21st century, contributing to more frequent and severe coastal flooding in low-lying areas and coastal erosion. Extreme sea level events that previously occurred once in 100 years could happen every year by the end of this century.
• Further warming will amplify permafrost thawing, and the loss of seasonal snow cover, melting of glaciers and ice sheets, and loss of summer Arctic sea ice.
• Changes to the ocean, including warming, more frequent marine heatwaves, ocean acidification, and reduced oxygen levels have been clearly linked to human influence. These changes affect both ocean ecosystems and the people that rely on them, and they will continue throughout at least the rest of this century.
• For cities, some aspects of climate change may be amplified, including heat (since urban areas are usually warmer than their surroundings), flooding from heavy precipitation events and sea level rise in coastal cities.

Impact of Temperature Rise 

• Ice is melting worldwide, especially at the Earth’s poles. This includes mountain glaciers, ice sheets covering West Antarctica and Greenland, and Arctic sea ice. In Montana's Glacier National Park the number of glaciers has declined to fewer than 30 from more than 150 in 1910.
• Much of this melting ice contributes to sea-level rise. Global sea levels are rising 0.13 inches (3.2 millimeters) a year, and the rise is occurring at a faster rate in recent years.
• Rising temperatures are affecting wildlife and their habitats. Vanishing ice has challenged species such as the Adélie penguin in Antarctica, where some populations on the western peninsula have collapsed by 90 percent or more.
• As temperatures change, many species are on the move. Some butterflies, foxes, and alpine plants have migrated farther north or to higher, cooler areas.
• Precipitation (rain and snowfall) has increased across the globe, on average. Yet some regions are experiencing more severe drought, increasing the risk of wildfires, lost crops, and drinking water shortages.
• Some species—including mosquitoes, ticks, jellyfish, and crop pests—are thriving. Booming populations of bark beetles that feed on spruce and pine trees, for example, have devastated millions of forested acres in the U.S.

Other effects could take place later this century, if warming continues. These include:

• Sea levels are expected to rise between 10 and 32 inches (26 and 82 centimeters) or higher by the end of the century.
• Hurricanes and other storms are likely to become stronger. Floods and droughts will become more common. Large parts of the U.S., for example, face a higher risk of decades-long "megadroughts" by 2100.
• Less freshwater will be available, since glaciers store about three-quarters of the world's freshwater.
• Some diseases will spread, such as mosquito-borne malaria (and the 2016 resurgence of the Zika virus).
• Ecosystems will continue to change: Some species will move farther north or become more successful; others, such as polar bears, won’t be able to adapt and could become extinct.

REFERENCES: 

• USGCRP, 2017: Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I [Wuebbles, D.J., D.W. Fahey, K.A. Hibbard, D.J. Dokken, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock (eds.)]. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, 470 pp., doi: 10.7930/J0J964J6.
• NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, State of the Climate: Global Climate Report for Annual 2020, online January 2021, retrieved on March 15, 2021 from https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202013.
•  IPCC, 2014: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change.
• who.int/
• https://www.nationalgeographic.com/
• https://www.ipcc.ch/

EVIDENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE

 In this chapter we will look at how to know the effects of climate change. How do we know that the climate is changing. We shall just browse through some of the scientific evidence. 

Direct observations made on and above Earth’s surface show the planet’s climate is significantly changing. Human activities are the primary driver of those changes.

Earth's climate has changed throughout history. Just in the last 650,000 years there have been seven cycles of glacial advance and retreat, with the abrupt end of the last ice age about 11,700 years ago marking the beginning of the modern climate era — and of human civilization.

1. GLOBAL TEMPERATURE RISE 

The planet's average surface temperature has risen about 2.12 degrees Fahrenheit (1.18 degrees Celsius) since the late 19th century, a change driven largely by increased carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere and other human activities. Most of the warming occurred in the past 40 years, with the seven most recent years being the warmest. The years 2016 and 2020 are tied for the warmest year on record.

2. WARMING OCEAN 

The ocean has absorbed much of this increased heat, with the top 100 meters (about 328 feet) of ocean showing warming of more than 0.6 degrees Fahrenheit (0.33 degrees Celsius) since 1969. Earth stores 90% of the extra energy in the ocean.

3. SHRINKING ICE SHEETS 

The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have decreased in mass. Data from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment show Greenland lost an average of 279 billion tons of ice per year between 1993 and 2019, while Antarctica lost about 148 billion tons of ice per year.

4. GLACIAL RETREAT 

Glaciers are retreating almost everywhere around the world — including in the Alps, Himalayas, Andes, Rockies, Alaska, and Africa.

5. DECREASED SNOW COVER 

Satellite observations reveal that the amount of spring snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere has decreased over the past five decades and the snow is melting earlier.

6. SEA LEVEL RISE 

Global sea level rose about 8 inches (20 centimeters) in the last century. The rate in the last two decades, however, is nearly double that of the last century and accelerating slightly every year.

7. DECLINING ARCTIC SEA ICE 

Both the extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice has declined rapidly over the last several decades.

8. EXTREME NATURAL EVENTS 

Increase in natural disasters each year.

9. OCEAN ACIDIFICATION 

Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, the acidity of surface ocean waters has increased by about 30%. This increase is the result of humans emitting more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and hence more being absorbed into the ocean. The ocean has absorbed between 20% and 30% of total anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions in recent decades (7.2 to 10.8 billion metric tons per year).

The evidence of climate change is overwhelming, urging us to climate action. Here are some of the opinions from our Instagram & Facebook family: 

FACEBOOK

Sprut Krankle  - 

"The Sahara going green."

Prachi Jain  -

" 16% above expected levels, forest wildfires, rains."

INSTAGRAM 

@_real_rizwana - 

"Unpredictable weather."

@_nussy_ -

"Global temperatures rise, warming ocean, decreased snow cover, glacial retreat & ocean acidification."

@sumaiyaharunani - 

" So many!!! Wildfires, drought, typhoons, ice on Kilimajaro is almost over. Heat waves, intense drought, rise of sea levels, melting glaciers, extreme weather conditions. "

@its_winnie_cheche - 

"Floods and droughts."

@breathenmoments -

"Increased erratic weather."

@blue_earth_organization -

"Rise in sea levels, abrupt change in weather patterns."

@dafina_bread -

"No rain. Prolonged drought. "

@zainab_akadir -

"Temperature fluctuation and melting of ice peaks."

REFERENCES:

• https://climate.nasa.gov/
• Vostok ice core data; NOAA Mauna Loa CO2 record
• Gaffney, O.; Steffen, W. (2017). "The Anthropocene equation," The Anthropocene Review (Volume 4, Issue 1, April 2017), 53-61.
• https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/faq/indicators.php
• https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/​
• http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp
• https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/index3.html
• National Snow and Ice Data Center
• World Glacier Monitoring Service
• National Snow and Ice Data Center
• R. S. Nerem, B. D. Beckley, J. T. Fasullo, B. D. Hamlington, D. Masters and G. T. Mitchum. "Climate-change–driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era." PNAS, 2018 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1717312115
• http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/story/What+is+Ocean+Acidification%3F

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Global climate change has already had observable effects on the environment.

The effects of human-caused global warming are happening now, are irreversible on the timescale of people alive today, and will worsen in the decades to come.

As climate change transforms global ecosystems, it affects everything from the places we live to the water we drink to the air we breathe.

Let us list a few of these effects as seen in our world today: 

• Global temperatures will continue to rise for decades to come, largely due to greenhouse gases produced by human activities.
• Extreme Weather; As the earth’s atmosphere heats up, it collects, retains, and drops more water, changing weather patterns and making wet areas wetter and dry areas drier. 
• Air pollution and climate change are inextricably linked, with one exacerbating the other. 
• According to the World Health Organization, “climate change is expected to cause approximately 250,000 additional deaths per year” between 2030 and 2050. As air pollution worsens, so does respiratory health—particularly for the 300 million people living with asthma worldwide; there’s more airborne pollen and mold to torment hay fever and allergy sufferers, too. Extreme weather events, such as severe storms and flooding, can lead to injury, drinking water contamination, and storm damage that may compromise basic infrastructure or lead to community displacement.
• Rising Seas. The Arctic is heating twice as fast as any other place on the planet.
• The earth’s oceans absorb between one-quarter and one-third of our fossil fuel emissions and are now 30 percent more acidic than they were in preindustrial times. This acidification poses a serious threat to underwater life, particularly creatures with calcified shells or skeletons like oysters, clams, and coral. It can have a devastating impact on shellfisheries, as well as the fish, birds, and mammals that depend on shellfish for sustenance.
• Climate change is increasing pressure on wildlife to adapt to changing habitats—and fast. Many species are seeking out cooler climates and higher altitudes, altering seasonal behaviors, and adjusting traditional migration patterns. These shifts can fundamentally transform entire ecosystems and the intricate webs of life that depend on them. As a result, according to a 2014 IPCC climate change report, many species now face “increased extinction risk due to climate change.” And one 2015 study showed that mammals, fish, birds, reptiles, and other vertebrate species are disappearing 114 times faster than they should be, a phenomenon that has been linked to climate change, pollution, and deforestation—all interconnected threats. 

So what are the effects of climate change in the future? Let's browse through some of them. 

• Global climate is projected to continue to change over this century and beyond. The magnitude of climate change beyond the next few decades depends primarily on the amount of heat-trapping gases emitted globally, and how sensitive the Earth’s climate is to those emissions.
• Temperatures will continue to rise
• Frost- free season (and growing season) will lengthen 
• More droughts and heat waves
• Hurricanes will become stronger and more intense 
• Sea levels will rise drastically 
• The Arctic likely to become ice free! 

We asked the same questions on our social media and here are some of the answers we received from our Instagram family: 

baus_taka_enterprise: 

"Drought, icebergs melting, fires, global warming, landslides, floods." 

sumaiyaharunany: 

"Rising sea levels, melting glaciers, heatwaves, frequent and intense droughts, storms."

phoenix_marketing_solutions:

"Temperature rises, sea level rises, drought." 

zainab_akadir:

"Global Warming."

_real_rizwana: 

"Temperatures and natural caused disasters."

REFRENCES: 

1. https://climate.nasa.gov/effects/

CLIMATE CHANGE / TEMPERATURE RISES

 INTRODUCTION

This new Blog Series takes a look at climate change with the emphasis on the recent global temperature rises. We touch through definitions of climate change, causes of climate change focusing on temperature rises and look at what actions we can take to lessen the effects and save our planet. 

CLIMATE CHANGE 

Climate change is the global phenomenon of climate transformation characterized by the changes in the usual climate of the planet (regarding temperature, precipitation, and wind) that are especially caused by human activities. As a result of unbalancing the weather of Earth, the sustainability of the planet’s ecosystems is under threat, as well as the future of humankind and the stability of the global economy.

NASA scientists have observed Earth’s surface is warming, and many of the warmest years on record have happened in the past 20 years.

NASA’s definition of climate change says it is “a broad range of global phenomena created predominantly by burning fossil fuels, which add heat-trapping gases to Earth’s atmosphere. These phenomena include the increased temperature trends described by global warming, but also encompass changes such as sea-level rise; ice mass loss in Greenland, Antarctica, the Arctic and mountain glaciers worldwide; shifts in flower/plant blooming; and extreme weather events.”

WEATHER vs CLIMATE CHANGE

Weather describes the conditions outside right now in a specific place. For example, if you see that it’s raining outside right now, that’s a way to describe today’s weather. Rain, snow, wind, hurricanes, tornadoes — these are all weather events.

Climate, on the other hand, is more than just one or two rainy days. Climate describes the weather conditions that are expected in a region at a particular time of year.

CLIMATE CHANGE vs GLOBAL WARMING

According to the US Geological Survey, global warming is just one aspect of climate change. In fact, they say that global warming refers to the rise in global temperatures due mainly to the increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. 

On the other hand, climate change refers to the increasing changes in the measures of climate over a long period of time – including precipitation, temperature, and wind patterns.

"Climate Change is something deeper than justice, it's about solidarity. Human solidarity." 

- BILL MCKIBBEN